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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets (7:10 PM ET)

Gotta give credit to the Mets. We were all making fun of them a few weeks ago, but here we are—the Mets are playing great ball again. Something (or someone) flipped a switch. Perhaps it was this . Since that that dramatic extra innings win over the Rays, the Mets are 10-4, which includes a sweep of the Phillies this week, and they are now in 2^nd place in the the NL East. Their starting pitching has improved vastly, and they’re getting excellent run support from the hitters on their roster who were expected to be standouts all along—Pete Alonso (141 wRC+, .877 OPS), Brandon Nimmo (131 wRC+), and Francisco Alvarez (129 wRC+)—as well as from some usually under-the-radar hitters like Mark Canha, who was sizzling in Philadelphia this week (3 hits, 2 homers, 6 RBIs).

Today, they welcome Toronto for a three-day series in Citi. Toronto is a team that desperately needs to flip a switch. The last two and a half weeks have not been pretty for the Jays. Their clash with with the Yankees a few weeks ago, with all of its “chirping” and petty drama, seemed to put them into a funk—they’ve gone 6-11 since then. This is still one of the most potent offenses in the big leagues—top-10 in just about every major hitting category. The Jays have seven roster players with wRC+ numbers above 102 (only six clubs have more). And since May 16, despite the funk they’ve been in, they’ve ranked third in MLB in wRC+ as a team. To put things into perspective, the Yankees, their imagined nemesis who moved ahead of them in the AL East after that ill-fated series in Toronto, ranked 14^th during that same period. You might think that starting pitching is the problem for the Jays, but as a staff, they are top ten in just about every advanced category there too, including SIERA, xFIP, and K-BB%. With no major injuries to speak of, the Jays are underperforming, to say the least. They need a sharp, flat-handed slap to the face.

Today they start Chris Bassitt, whose 4.69 SIERA and 4.95 xERA do not inspire confidence. The Mets counter with Justin Verlander, who has shown solid, even inspiring, effort in his first season as a man in his forties. But it is far below the standards we’ve associated with him—his SIERA sits at 4.58, his Stuff+ rating has fallen to 103, he now has his lowest strikeout rate (18.2%) since 2018. All of these things considered, it’s a little surprising that the total for this game is set at only 8.5.

Bet the game total OVER 8.5 runs (-114).

Best of the Rest

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