Best Bets for the Friday Slate!

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM ET)

The Cubs were walloped in Wrigley last night by a resurgent Mets club, who have won six out of their last 8 games. That said, Chicago did take the first two games against the Mets this week to get a W for the series. When the Cubs do well, it tends to be because of their offense. Their wRC+ and wOBA numbers (110 and .334) are super solid, top 6 in the league. Those numbers tend to go down a bit against righties, and this would seem to bode well for Cincy today, as they start right-hander Hunter Greene (4.68 ERA, 4.21 xERA). But c’mon, the Cubs still have a wRC+ of 105 against righties currently—ranked 8^th in the league this season—as well as very good wOBA (.327) and OPS (.745) numbers against righties.

On the other side of the scorecard, you have the Reds, who have struggled to create runs this season. Their wRC+ of 87 is bottom five in the league. They do show some aptitude in plate appearances against lefties (.735 OPS) as opposed to righties (.688 OPS). This helps today, as they get to face Chicago’s left-hander, Justin Steele. Steele (2.20 ERA) has been very good this year, but some of his advanced numbers (4.04 xFIP) suggest there is a bit of regression on the way. I do not see him getting a loss against this sketchy Reds offense. However, Cincy will likely score some runs in this game, either against Steele or an average Cubs bullpen. And situationally, I tend to like good offensive clubs (the Cubs) at home coming off a bad showing (as happened last night for the Cubs). I see value on an exceptionally low total of 7 runs.

Bet the game total OVER 7 runs (-106).

Best of the Rest

• Bet the YANKEES money line/to win (-106).

• Bet the Mets -1.5 run line (-144).

• Bet White Sox/Tigers game total OVER 8.5 runs (-102).