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Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles (4:06 PM ET)

This Orioles/Rangers series in Baltimore is everything one could ask for in Memorial Day weekend baseball. Two young, super-exciting clubs who have been playing great baseball and looking like pennant contenders. It’s a near perfect matchup for the final weekend in May. And let’s be frank, it is a wonderfully pleasant surprise to have the Orioles and Rangers back as relevant baseball clubs. That said, last night’s opening game in the series was a dud (unless you are a Rangers fan). The Orioles, behind Grayson Rodriguez, were walloped by the Rangers (12-2 score), causing this to happen this morning (which brings to mind Brad Pitt’s “bullet to the head” analogy in Moneyball).

Let’s hope we have a more competitive affair today. Situationally, I tend to like good offensive clubs (the Orioles) at home coming off a bad night, so I expect better baseball from the O’s today. Unfortunately, Baltimore’s only achilles heel will continue to be as it has been all season—starting pitching. And it pains me to write this because the sentimental side of me is kinda rooting for the Orioles. But it’s going to be hard to mount a pennant run when your “ace” (Tyler Wells) has a 3.91 SIERA, and no other starter has a SIERA (or xFIP) below 4.58 or a WHIP below 1.30.

Baltimore’s starting pitcher today, Dean Kremer, is a right hander with a 4.61 ERA, 4.63 xFIP and 1.48 WHIP. He tends to give up hard contact, which is supported by his 6.75 xERA number. Texas owns a team wRC+ of 106 against right-handed pitching, ranking 8th in MLB. Other the other side of the card, the Rangers will send lefty Andrew Heaney to the mound. His numbers (4.13 ERA & 4.16 SIERA) are not outstanding by any means, but he has pitched well recently, allowing just one earned run over his past two starts. I give the Rangers the edge today, though I expect it to be a closer game than last night. But I will stay away from taking a side, and instead look the total of 8.5 runs—which seems really low for these powerful offenses. I will take the over, and sit back and watch a great game.

Bet the total OVER 8.5 runs (-118)

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