Best Bets for Saturday’s slate!

Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals (2:15 PM ET)

I’m not a big believer in the “momentum” myth in baseball, but for what it’s worth, the Detroit Tigers are on an upswing (a 4-game winning streak), while the St. Louis Cardinals are on a downswing (they’ve lost 7 straight games). I say that’s not worth a lot because swings have a way of changing directions when you take a side at the betting window. That said, it’s hard to believe that 41 year old Adam Wainwright, who will make his season debut today, is the answer for the Cards. He had a 6.23 ERA in 3 rehab starts in the minors. Then again, Spencer Turnbull, the starter for the Tigers, has a 1-4 record, 6.84 ERA supported by a dismal 3.3 K-BB %. Yikes. So lets look at the offense here— the Cardinals are very near the top 10 in many, many advanced batting metrics, including wRC+ and wOBA, and their 10th ranked team batting average of .259 is promising. On the other side, no one is going to argue that Detroit is an exceptional offensive squad, but they’ve averaged just over 5 runs per game in their current win streak. Javier Baez seems to be finding his swing as well—he has 3 home runs in his last 4 games Both offenses should be able score runs today against these pitchers, so I’m betting the over here even with the higher number of 9.

Bet the game total OVER 9 (-115)

 Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (4:10 PM ET)

At home, Colorado’s Austin Gomber's ERA and WHIP have left much to be desired (10.66 & 1.97). His performance on the road, however, has been relatively better (ERA 4.91, WHIP 1.43), which means we might be able to trust him (for a while at least) today against a Mets offense that has managed only 2 runs in their previous three games. Tylor Megill has been relatively stable for the Mets this season with a 4.11 ERA in his 7 appearances. Colorado averages 5.06 runs while playing at home but only 3.2 runs on the road. The total under 8.5 has value here at EVEN.

Bet the game total UNDER 8.5 (EVEN)

 Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM ET)

 Drew Smyly’s resurgence with the Cubs is one of this season’s best “How can you not love baseball” moments. His 2.97 ERA is backed up by a top-30 K-BB% and a top-10 xERA. He’s not going to strike out a lot of batters, but he is going to force weak contact and avoid walks. And he is backed up by the resurgence of a Cubs offense that has figured out how to create runs. They should do that again today again Bryan Hoeing, whose 7.50 xERA does not inspire confidence. Add to that, a weak Marlins bullpen, and I will take the Cubs on the run line.

Bet the Cubs run line -1.5 (+110)