Best Bets for Sunday!

So far, it has been a frustrating season for the Washington Nationals. Their starting pitching has been mediocre, though it has improved a bit compared to last year. And they have middle-the-pack hitting numbers overall. What is interesting, however, is how well they have hit left-handers. They have a 119 wRC+, .799 OPS, and .350 wOBA against left-handed pitching, all rankings firmly within the top ten in MLB. Their strikeout rate against lefties is 17.8%, currently the best number in baseball. This is why I am a bit surprised to see good value (-105) as the Nats face off with the Royals in KC on Sunday. Kansas City will be giving the ball to their rookie left hander, Daniel Lynch, who enters the pitching rotation for his season debut today. Lynch had good but not great stats (3.50 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, and 1.22 WHIP) in 18 innings of Triple-A ball. He’ll attempt, however, to climb a different mountain today against a Nats offense that has scored 5 runs or more in six out their last 8 games. And he will be doing so with a Royals bullpen behind him that is sketchy at best—they’re ranked next to last (behind Oakland) in WHIP 1.51 and bottom ten in xFIP and SIERA.

The Nats counter with MacKenzie Gore. He too is not making headlines with his pitching stats, but his 4.12 SIERA and 3.78 xFIP numbers are a significant upgrade from his numbers last year. He’s also managed a very solid strikeout rate (28.3%), which makes up for his persistent issue with walks. The Washington offense will likely score early and often against Lynch, which sets things up nicely for Gore. There are several appealing betting options here, including the F5 money line and totals, but I like the following:

Bet the NATIONALS money line/to win (-105)

Bet the Nats team total OVER 4.5 runs (-110)

Best of the Rest

• Bet the Astros -1.5 run line (-155).

• Bet the Cards/Guardians game total UNDER 8.5 runs (-122).

• Bet the WHITE SOX money line/to win first five (F5) innings (-118).