Best Bets for Tuesday MLB Slate!

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets (7:10 PM ET)

The Tampa Bay Rays at plus odds against the Mets? Yeah, sure, I’ll take that. These odds, of course, reflect the fact that 2022 Cy Young winner Justin Verlander takes the mound for the Mets tonight. The 40-year-old Verlander has allowed 3 runs and 7 hits in 12 innings over two starts this season (2.25 ERA). It needs to be noted, however, that while it’s still too early to tell much, his advanced numbers (such as his xERA of 4.21 and xFIP of 4.44) are the highest they’ve been in five years. And those two starts were against weaker offenses, namely the Reds and the Tigers. He’ll be facing a different beast tonight when he goes up against this 2023 Rays offense, whose league-leading 141 wRC+ is eclipsing the rest of baseball (Texas is second with a 116 wRC+). The Rays are already in New York, after playing the Yankees over the weekend, so they received a rare no-travel day off on the road Monday. They will bring a rested offense and bullpen into this matchup. They have scored 31 runs in their last six games. The Mets have scored 16 runs in six games. So, yes, I’ll take the red-hot Rays against the lackluster Mets at plus odds. I’ll do that happily.

Bet the RAYS to win money line (+140)

Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros (8:10 PM ET)

The Astros right-hander Cristian Javier is staying true to form this season—a solid second or third starter who is not going to rock anyone’s world but who is going to be consistent and give his team a lot of innings. In 46 innings over 8 games, he is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, and 4.18 xERA. These numbers are slightly worse than where his numbers were at the end of 2022, but quite similar to his 2020 and 2021 numbers. Today he faces a Cubs offense that has slumped a bit, but is still top ten in every significant hitting category. I am a little surprised to see the Cubs as such substantial underdogs (+144) behind their ace, Justin Steele. But it is worth noting that Steele’s ERA (1.82) is likely due for some negative regression, as his advanced numbers (4.12 xFIP, 3.21 xERA) suggest. That said, while it is true that the Cubs are on a three-game losing skid, the skid has to end at some time, and I would not be surprised to see it end today. My own bet, however, will zoom in on Chicago’s offense against Javier—I’ll take the Cubs’ team total over 3 runs.

Bet the Cubs total OVER 3 runs (-130).

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (8:10 PM ET)

I spent much of yesterday’s write-up singing the praises of Milwaukee’s hitters against right handers. Then the Cardinals take the field and ring up 18 runs, looking like they were freaking playing in Mexico City. I will not fade these Cardinals today. They have won 4 straight games, and they look to extend the streak tonight with Jordan Montgomery on the mound. Montgomery (3.90 xERA) is one of those workhorses who will give a solid outing. Opposing Montgomery is Wade Miley for the Brewers, whose has a 3.60 ERA through 7 starts has likely been a bit lucky, as his xFIP of 5.28 suggests. All things considered (and given that 9 of the Cardinals’ last 12 games have gone over), I will play the total here, fading two less than stellar pitchers against two offenses that can put runs on the board. I’m pleasantly surprised to see that total set at 8 runs.

Bet the game total OVER 8 runs (-122).

Best of the Rest

 Bet the game total OVER 7.5 runs for Phillies/Giants (-110).

Bet the Dodgers -0.5 run line in first five (F5) innings (-130).

Bet the Royals/Padres game total UNDER 8.5 runs (-118).