Best Bets for Wednesday MLB Slate!

BEST BETS 

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (6:40 PM ET)

Justin Steele and the Cubs are slated to face Jordan Montgomery and the Cardinals in Chicago on Wednesday night. Steele has been dominant this season, boasting a 1.45 ERA with 36 strikeouts over 43 1/3 innings. He has yet to surrender more than two earned runs in a start. His 2.99 xERA does indicate some regression, but not enough to make me suspicious tonight. He faces a Cardinals offense that is certainly capable—they sit just outside the top ten in team wRC+ (107) and wOBA (.327). But their numbers dip, for whatever reason, on the road against left-handed pitching (wRC+ 97). The Cubs, on the other hand, sit just inside the top ten in those categories, and they face a pitcher in Montgomery with a 3.75 xFIP and a 3.52 xERA. I give the Cubs the advantage here behind better pitching and (I think) with motivation to avoid a sweep at home by their rivals. There is good value in the money line.

Bet the CUBS to win money line (-115).

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians ( 1:10 PM ET)

The last time that Tigers hurler Eduardo Rodriguez started against Cleveland he went 8 innings, striking out 10 batters and allowing no runs. Granted, that was back on April 18, but it’s not as if Rodriguez has slowed down much. He is having a solid season, and now holds a 1.81 ERA and a K-BB% of 19.0. His xFIP (3.75) suggests some regression, but he has 39 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings. He’ll likely do well again today against the Cleveland Guardians, still ranked dead last among all MLB offenses in team wOBA and wRC+. The Guardians will start Peyton Battenfield who currently holds a 6.37 xERA this season. The Tigers have superior starting pitching in this game, and therefore, the -110 money line has some value here.

Bet the TIGERS to win money line (-110).

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (3:07 PM ET)

Right-hander Cristian Javier has been mostly sharp this year, and the Astros are 5-2 in his starts. But today he faces the LA Angels at home, where they rank 7^th in MLB in wRC+ and wOBA against right handers. On the other side of the card, Griffin Canning is 2-0 but his xERA (5.38) and xFIP (4.45) suggest that he can give up runs, and this Houston offense still has the potential for explosiveness, even if that potential has been only occasionally seen so far this season. I really like the over 5 in the first five innings of this game.

Bet the OVER 5 runs in the first five (F5) innings (-105).

Best of the Rest

• Bet the Rays total runs OVER 4.5 (-120)

• Bet the Phillies/Blue Jays game total UNDER 8.5 (-120)

• Bet the Red Sox/Braves game total UNDER 10 (-110)