Best Bets for the Wednesday night MLB slate!

Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays (5:40 PM ET)

Don’t get me wrong; I love the Pirates this year. They are a great story, and they may win this game and/or series. But the Rays come in as the most potent offense in the league. Their wRC+ of 148 is highest by far in baseball— 22 points higher than the second ranked Cubs’ wRC+ of 116. And so here, their team total of 4 feels really low against Mitch Keller and company. Keller, the Pirates right-handed starter today, is a solid starter. He effectively mixes his 4-seam fastball with a cutter and sinker. This year, his opponents have struggled to hit Keller hard, with only a 24% hard-hit rate, the least in the league of all qualified pitchers. Keller has been good, but he’s going up against the best offense in MLB today, and his 3.53 ERA (3.90 xERA, and 3.80 xFIP) through six starts leaves something to be desired. Also, the Pirates bullpen (4.18 xFIP and 4.10 SIERA) sit right in the middle of the league. Oh, and by the way, the Rays have stellar numbers against right handers—.371 wOBA and .541 SLG—tops in the league.

Bet the RAYS game total OVER 4 (-120)

Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees (6:05 PM ET)

Clarke Schmidt’s 4.01 xFIP, which is influenced by his solid strikeout to walk rate, suggests that he has been underachieving. Still, he has a 6.89 ERA (and 6.31). Hitters have a .394 average against him on balls in play (BABIP), and they are hitting 2.52 home runs against him per every 9 innings he pitches (ranked #123, almost dead last in MLB among starters with 20+ pitches). His xERA of 6.31 reflects this. Schmidt is line for some regression, but an ERA above 5.00 will likely stay be with him for awhile. His opponent Shane Bieber has a 4.73 xERA and 4.32 xFIP, also much lower than preseason expectations. This season, there’s not much in these pitchers’ stuff to support less than 4 runs total in the first five innings.

Bet the F5 total OVER 4 runs (-115)

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (7:40 PM ET)

Bet the game total OVER 8.5 runs (-110)

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (7:40 PM ET)

Bet the BRAVES to win (money line -130)