Friday night’s packed MLB slate

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (7:08 PM ET)

The Toronto Blue Jays spent the last week chirping at the Yankees. Tonight, they welcome the Orioles into town. This version of the Battle of the Birds promises more drama and stakes that are likely higher (at least as far at the AL East goes). These two teams are 2^nd and 3^rd in the AL East standings, and while the Rays are still well ahead of them both, the gap is slowly beginning to close. Toronto’s nearly immaculate home record (13-3 before Monday) took some dings this week (13-6 at home now, due to the Yankees). They’re looking to right things behind an offense ranked top 12 in MLB in wRC+, wOBA, OPS. Yusei Kikuchi will take the mound for the Jays. Stats-wise, the left-hander has been an average pitcher—3.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.93 SIERA, and 18.3% K-B—but he is 5-0 this season, including two wins in his last two starts. The Orioles have molded themselves into one of the more exciting clubs in baseball, mainly behind an offense that has stayed in the top 10 in every advanced hitting category. Kyle Gibson, slated to pitch for Baltimore, has a 4-3 record and 4.67 ERA/4.89 SIERA/5.21 xERA. His team has lost three consecutive games with him on the mound, including 4 ERs in his last start against the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team quite similar to the Jays in terms of hitting strengths. This is perhaps the most compelling series of the weekend, and I do expect the Orioles to take a game or two, but tonight I give the edge to the Jays. Now that the Yankees have left town, they might just calm down and play baseball.

Bet the BLUE JAYS to win money line (-150)

 Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies (7:06 PM ET) 

The Cubs will send Marcus Stroman to the mound in Philly today. The Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez. Both pitchers are tasked with a tall order—to stop the bleeding—as these two teams are in the midst of major slumps. The Cubs have a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, which includes a recent sweep by the Houston Astros. The Phillies, bless their hearts, have lost four consecutive games, including a sweep by the blessedly average San Francisco Giants. So which pitcher is best equipped to fill their tall order? It is, in my opinion, it is likely right-hander, Marcus Stroman, who has a solid 3.24 ERA, even if his xFIP (3.48), and SIERA (3.93). Facing him will be the Phils’ left-hander Suarez, who had the “privilege” of having his season debut happen in Colorado last week, which is why his numbers are rather high at this point.

My play will not focus on this game’s outcome, however, but rather on the production of the Cubs offense, which despite the team’s recent slump still has very good hitting/scoring numbers—ranked top 8 in wRC+ (111), wOBA, and top 10 in OPS and BB/K. They do not hit the ball terribly hard, but they get balls in play (.322 BABIP which is 3^rd ranked in MLB), and it has translated into runs more often than not. They currently hold the fourth-highest team batting average in the majors and have scored four or more runs in six of their last ten games. In terms of splits, their RC and OB numbers against left-handers are top 3 in the league. The Cubs may or may not win this game, but they will have an nice chance to ring up some runs against Suarez and the Phillies’ pen.

Bet the Cubs team total OVER 4 runs (-114).

 Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays (6:40 PM ET)

Listen, New York is a great city. But here’s the thing about New York—it’s either a great place to visit for 3/4 nights or it’s a great place to live, to blend in and really mesh with the NYC vibe. What you don’t want is to be in limbo in New York for 8 nights or so, just enough time for the crowds and the craziness to start creeping into your psyche, agitating you, messing with your mind. Your sweaty nighttime dreams begin to be haunted by pizza-eating subway rats. I say all of this to point out that the Tampa Bay Rays spent the past week in NYC—first, for a series against the Yankees last weekend, and then for a follow-up series against the all-over-the-crazy-map Mets. Imagine having delusional Yankees fans yelling at you all weekend, and then having nut-job Mets fans doing the same during the week.

The Rays are coming home today, and my guess is that they are quite happy to be doing so. After two losses to the Mets to end their week in hell, a game at Tropicana against the Brewers, losers of seven out of their last nine road games, should be just what the doctor ordered for the Rays. The Rays will send their ace, Shane McClanahan, to the mound against a spotty Adrian Houser (4.43 SIERA). The Rays hitters will almost certainly feast on Houser, and it’s worth a run line play.

Bet the RAYS -0.5 run line (-122).

Best of the Rest

• Bet the Diamondbacks first five (F5) innings -0.5 run line (-130).

• Bet the GIANTS to win money line (-120).

• Bet the TWINS to win first five (F5) innings money line (-140).

• Bet the Royals/White Sox game total OVER 9 runs (-108).