Friday’s MLB Slate—Best bets!

BEST BETS

 New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 PM ET)

Does it not seem like these two teams are always facing each other? Friday's game features Gerrit Cole on the mound, which of course deems the Yankees pricey favorites. It is worth noting that Cole struggled against the Rays in his last outing, and the Rays continue to be the most effective offense in baseball (and it’s not really close). Their league-leading 142 wRC+ is currently 25 points ahead of second-ranked Atlanta. If they can get a run or two against Cole, they’ll almost certainly follow that with more runs against a middle-of-the-pack Yankees pen. With warm weather and favorable winds today in the Bronx, I’m surprised to see the Rays team total (3.5) at plus value (+105). I know, I know, they’re facing Cole, but these Rays can manufacture runs.

Bet the Rays team total OVER 3.5 runs (+105)

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET)

Tonight, the Cincinnati Reds travel to Miami take on the Marlins in a 3-game series. Graham Ashcraft (3.89 ERA) gets the mound for the Reds. He was pummeled in his last start, giving up 8 runs in the first two innings. Before that game, however, in his prior 6 starts, he had managed a 2.00 ERA. Even then though, his xFIP number (4.37) suggested negative regression, and it came in one disastrous outing. The Reds have plenty of issues with their starting rotation, as just about anyone in Cincinnati will remind you, but just as Ashcraft was due for negative regression last week, he could due for some positive regression today against this inconsistent Marlins offense. Still, it’s hard to see Ashcraft as a 2 earned run starter. The Marlins start Eury Perez, a 20-year-old prospect, will make his major-league debut today. He has an ERA of 2.32 from Double-A, and all early report say that he possesses an impressive fastball that can reach triple digits. He should develop into the real deal, but it’s likely we will only see flashes of that in his debut today. Statistically, both teams have middle-of-the-pack bullpens. With the inconsistencies and unknowns in pitching, I feel the total of 7.5 is rather low. In the past week, both teams have had multiple games in which they have rung up 4 runs or more. I will take the over here.

Bet the game total OVER 7.5 runs (-115)

Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers (6:40 PM ET)

The Tigers suddenly have a resurgent offense, one that has scored at least five runs in 7 out of the last 9 games. The splits tell the story on the Tigers offense, especially the disparity in their performances between left- and right-handed pitching. Their .317 wOBA and 103 wRC+ against lefties is relatively good, especially when compared to their anemic .283 wOBA and 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They are set to face lefty Marco Gonzales, pitcher whose 4.70 ERA is justified by his 4.62 XERA, and 4.30 xFIP. The Tigers start Matthew Boyd, a pitcher whose xERA number (3.79) suggests that he is due for positive regression. It remains to be seen whether it will happen against his former team, the Mariners, today. But I’m willing to bet on the run support that he’ll receive from the Tigers offense at home, especially at plus value.

Bet the TIGERS money line (+105).

Best of the Rest

· Bet the Cubs/Twins UNDER 8 runs (-120).

· Bet the Pirates to win first five (F5) innings money line (+120).

· Bet the Phillies to win money line (-135).