Monday’s Best Bets for MLB!

Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates (6:36 PM ET)

After hot starts in April, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Baltimore Orioles were everyone’s sentimental favorite to win a pennant. But unlike the Orioles, the Pirates have faded fast, having lost 14 of their last 18 games. Their sputtering offense is one huge reason why; since April 30, their team wRC+ is 64, next to last in the league. Their OPS is .587, last in the league. During that time frame, only two other teams in the league (Minnesota and Cleveland) had a worse strikeout rate than the Pirates at 25.8%. Should I go on? Today, they face Dane Dunning, who got his shot in the Rangers starting rotation when Jacob DeGrom went on IR. And so far, Dunning has taken full advantage of his chance—3 starts, 2-0 record, 1.59 ERA 0.941 WHIP—against some of solid offensive lineups—the Braves, Angels and Mariners. His xFIP (3.72) and SIERA (3.91) suggest some negative regression is in store, however. That said, it is unlikely to happen today in Pittsburgh. The Pirates will counter with Luis Ortiz, the young starter, who has struggled in this his MLB debut month. Ortiz has given up nine runs and 14 hits over eight innings in his two 2 starts against rather weak competition (the Rockies and Tigers), and his 5.96 xFIP and 9.38 xERA do not exactly foretell positive regression. Add to that, the fact that the Rangers are an excellent offense, second only to the Rays in wRC+ and OPS, and I am really surprised to see this number so low at -132.

Bet the RANGERS money line/to win (-132).

Best of the Rest

• Bet the total OVER 7.5 in Astros/ Brewers (-115).

• Bet the TWINS money line/to win (-152).

• Bet the RAYS money line/to win (-110).