Monday’s Best Bets! A Tale of Two Offenses.

At The Corners went 4-1 with its Best Bets yesterday, which puts us at 17-7 over the last eight days. Here are two Best Bets for a limited MLB slate today. We’re hoping our run continues!

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (4:40 PM ET— Gm 2 of doubleheader)

The Atlanta Braves have some definite offensive firepower in their lineup. They rank top 6 in wRC+ (111), wOBA (.342), and SLG (.448). They give run support to their pitchers, and that will be needed in today’s doubleheader against the Mets, particularly in Game Two (which is where I see most of the value). After a weekend of rain cancellations in NY, the Braves will send Charlie Morton to the mound for Game Two, and Morton is likely going to need help from his offense. His ERA of 2.76 is due for regression, evidenced in his 4.83 xFIP. Today, he faces an underperforming but capable Mets offense (wRC+ 104). Fortunately, for him (and the Braves) his opponent on the mound today is Tylor Megill, whose 5.45 xFIP and 6.55 xERA inspire little confidence in his ability to limit the Braves’s hitters. Add to that, Atlanta’s superior bullpen, and I am taking the Braves moneyline in Game Two. (Note—Despite the shaky starting pitching here, I am not tempted to take a total because often teams will give one or two of their hitters a rest in the second game of the doubleheader.) For the record, I also see the Braves winning Game One, but there’s not a lot of value there. Might be a nice parlay though.

Bet the BRAVES moneyline to win (-115)

San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros (7:05 PM ET)

The Giants’ return flight from the highlands (Mexico City) lands them in the bayou lands (Houston). After the glorious chaos of that Mexico City atmosphere, they will likely be happy to be back in an indoor, controlled (and sea-level) environment in Minute Maid Park. There they face a Houston offense that has struggled some this season compared to previous years—the Astros’ wRC+ is 97, good for only 19^th in baseball. Today, the Astros are expected to capitalize on San Francisco Giants' weak pitching staff and their starter Ross Stripling, who has a 6.89 ERA. But there are signs that some positive regression may happen for Stripling, primarily his xFIP (.436) and BABIP (.310). And, significantly, the Astros have not scored more than 5 runs in a game since April 22. I see value on the Astros’ game total Under here.

Bet the UNDER Astros’ Game Total 4.5 runs (-105)