Monday’s MLB Best Bets!

BEST BETS

 Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians ( 5:10 PM ET)

Cleveland's Tanner Bibee has been pitching great, allowing only three runs in 11 innings while striking out 13 hitters. His xERA of 2.04 puts him in the company of the league's top pitchers. Today, he faces one of the worst teams in the league at the plate. Detroit's offense ranks at or near the very bottom in wRC+ (82) and wOBA (.208), and dead last in On-Base Percentage (.293). Their lone standout, Jose Ramirez, is the only player on the team to have a wRC+ above 110. On the other side of the card, Detroit will start Joey Wentz, who had an impressive 2022, but who has struggled in six outings this year (ERA 6.67). While his xERA suggests some positive regression, however, and today he has the benefit of facing an offense that has been worse than Detroit—the Cleveland Indians, ranked dead last in wOBA and wRC+. Moreover, in terms of splits, Detroit is weakest against right-handed pitching (Bibee is a right-hander), and Cleveland against left-handed (Wentz is a left-hander). The over/under for this game opened at 8 and has been bet down to 7.5. I would still take it at that number.

Bet the TOTAL under 7.5 (-110)

Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants (8:45 PM EST)

Expect a high-scoring game on Monday night when the Nationals and Giants face off in the first game of an interesting mid-week series in SF. With windy conditions expected to gust from 13-16 mph towards center field, this could be an advantageous situation for both offenses. And these offenses are not bad. Washington's offense has found its groove recently—posting three or more runs in four of their last 13 outings. Today, they face a Giants’ staff that has allowed 49 total runs over their past nine games. On the other side, the Giants offense rank top-12 in wRC+ and wOBA, and in the past week, they’ve helped the Giants to a series win in Houston and at home against Milwaukee. Today, they face the Nats’ Jake Irvin, whose SIERA of 7.21 and xFIP of 7.27 suggests that his ERA of 2.08 is due for a major rise. With these windy conditions in SF, that might happen tonight. I like the over here.

Bet the TOTAL over 8.5 (-110)

Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40 PM EST)

Yesterday, the Miami Marlins barely avoided an three game sweep against the Cubs with an extra-innings win in Chicago. Today they head out west to face the hot Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-backs have had success scoring runs all season, while the Marlins have struggled. The pitching matchup heavily favors Arizona, with Zac Gallen starting against Braxton Garrett for the Marlins. Gallen is getting older, but (like deGrom) he seem to be the very definition of “aging gracefully”— a 2.53 ERA supported by a 2.22 xFIP and an exceptional K-BB number of 11.40. Garrett, on the other hand, gave up 11 runs to Atlanta in his last start. His advanced metrics are not bad, but I can easily see him surrendering a couple of runs to these D-Backs hitters in the first five innings.

Bet the DIAMONDBACKS -0.5 run line in the first five innings (F5) (-138)

Best of the Rest

· Bet the Rockies/Pirates OVER 8

· Bet the WHITE SOX to win money line (-130)

· Bet the MARINERS to win money line (-170)