Saturday’s MLB Best Bets!

At The Corners went 4-1-1 (including one late-inning push) yesterday for a nice cashout. This week has been a profitable one, so hoping to keep that going today!

BEST BETS

 Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 PM ET)

Here’s a question. Over the first twelve days of May, which American League club led baseball in wRC+ and OPS? (As well, as ranking third in wOBA.) If you tell me that the first team to pop into your head is the KC Royals, I will call you a “fibber” (to use my Grandma’s phrase). But there they are, the KC Royals, atop the hitting leaderboards for May. One reason why is that the Royals have the 3rd highest hard-hit rate in baseball (43.9%), which could be significant today as they face Adrian Houser, making his second start of the season for Milwaukee. In his first start, he gave up seven hits in 4 innings, and he did so with a significant amount of hard contact. On the other side of the card, the Milwaukee Brewers have not been nearly as effective as the Royals in May, but today they face a diminished Zack Greinke (5.19 xERA), and they should see some success. 9 runs has been set as the total on most books, and I gotta say, I am all about the over in this game.

Bet the game total OVER 9 (-105)

Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays (3:05 PM ET)

The Braves and Blue Jays are top 12 teams in just about every significant hitting category, and they should be able to ring up some runs today. The Braves’ Bryce Elder has one of the more disparate ERA (1.74) to SIERA (3.87) splits among qualified starters this season, which should make one skeptical about his ability to limit runs. The Blue Jays’ starter José Berríos is inconsistent at best, with a 4.91 ERA, and a 5.03 xERA, and today he faces a Braves offense that is third in MLB in wRC+ (114). Today’s total of 9 runs is certainly in range, especially considering that eight out of the last 10 Blue Jays games have seen totals safely above that number.

Bet the game total OVER 9 (-122)

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (1:05 PM ET)

I spent a good part of yesterday’s writeup discussing why one should always expect the Rays to manufacture runs against Yankees’ pitchers, even Gerrit Cole. And yes, as expected, they were able to do so last night, although they lost a close game 6-5. Today, they face lefty Nelson Cortes (SIERA 4.55, xFIP 5.15), a much less bankable Yankees starter than Cole. So here are a few more impressive numbers to toss about— the Rays offense, against left-handed pitchers, have 157 wRC+, .923 OPS, and .391 wOBA. They will send their ace—Shane McClanahan (1.76 ERA)— to the mound today, so there’s really not much to discuss. I would have taken the Rays run line for this game, but lo and behold, most books still have money line at sub-150 (-142 currently on FanDuel). So…

Bet the RAYS to win money line (-142)

Best of the Rest

• Bet the Red Sox to win money line (-135).

• Bet the Dodgers/Padres game total OVER 8.5 runs (-110)

• Bet the Mariners -0.5 run line in the first five (F5) innings (-130).