Saturday’s MLB Best Bets!

Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles (1:10 PM EST)

Can someone remind the Toronto Blue Jays that the 2^nd place Orioles are in town? Yesterday, the Jays blew as good of a chance as they will have to right their ship, facing the O’s inconsistent starter Kyle Gibson. But alas the Jays were trucked by Orioles, early and often, and after a 9^th inning Adam Frazier home run, Toronto fans broke into the traditional “Yankees Suck” chant, which in modern day parlance means “We’re lost again so let’s be ironic about it.” In one fell swoop, the Jays fell from third to last place in the AL East (after the Yankees and Red Sox both won). They are losers of four out of their last 5 games, all at home, in what will be their longest home stand of the season. Jeez.

Things do not get easier today for the Jays, as they trot Alek Manoah out to the mound, he who owns MLB's worst SIERA (6.02) and xFIP (6.12) among all qualified starting pitchers. He has struggled with command, and his slider has been particularly ineffective, generating a 25.3% whiff rate and allowing a .508 wOBA against it. Tonight, Manoah faces an extremely patient set of Orioles hitters, who collectively rank top-10 in pitches per plate appearance. The O’s tend to get balls in play, and they do not strike out often. They have a solid wRC+ of 103 against right-handers. The Orioles are familiar with Manoah from prior seasons, thus making him highly exploitable in this matchup. Add to that, they’ve seemed to figure something out offensively this week, as they have scored five or more runs in four of their last 5 games.

Bet the Orioles team total OVER 4 runs (-122)

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies 4:10 PM EST

The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the most strangely streaky midseason records I’ve ever seen. They tend to look like world-beaters for a few games, and then they go into catatonic slumber. Their record since April 26 can be summed up in the following way:

4-game winning streak followed by 6 game losing streak followed by 5-game winning streak followed by 5-game losing streak.

Last night, they were trounced, 10-1 by the struggling Cubs, which was the fifth loss in their latest streak. So of course, they’ll likely wake up and begin winning today. The chances of this happening are improved by the fact that they get to face Cubs starter, Jameson Taillon, who has a 6.66 ERA after six games. Taillon’s 4.05 xFIP and 4.31 SIERA suggest that he’s been a bit unlucky, but still his past three starts have been particularly problematic, as he surrendered three earned runs in 3 innings against the Nationals, four earned runs in 2 2/3 innings against the Cardinals, and four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Astros. In other words, he has not completed five innings in any of his last three starts. The Phillies will go with Aaron Nola, who frankly has not been much better than Taillon this season, although for whatever reason, Nola seems to pitch better at home (3.94 xFIP) than on the road (4.67 xFIP). The best value in this game, however, is with the Phillies’ team total, which at 4.5 runs will possibly be reached in the first few innings.

Bet the Phillies team total OVER 4.5 runs (-126).

Best of the Rest

• Bet the CARDINALS money line to win (-108).

• Bet the TWINS money line to win (+105)

• Bet the GIANTS run line (-0.5) in the first five (F5) innings (-125).