Sunday Night Baseball in the Bronx: Yankees vs. Red Sox Preview

It is always super fun to have Yankees & Red Sox meet up on Sunday Night baseball. True, the rivalry is rather diminished this year, as the Rays are (once again) ruling the AL East, and the Orioles and Blue Jays are also getting much of the attention in that division. But c’mon, it’s NYC vs. Boston. Every baseball fan worth his “sox” will care about this one. (Yes, that’s right, extra-clumsy Dad pun there, and one week before Father’s Day, I’m just gonna own it 😀 .)

About five weeks ago, the skies were looking mighty bright in Boston, as the Red Sox had just delivered an eight-game win streak. But after the first week of May, things took a turn for the bad, and things have steadily gotten worse. The Red Sox have lost thirteen of their 16 games since May 20, primarily because they just cannot seem to create runs consistently. They have, for example, averaged only 2.37 runs per game in the last week (since their June 3 loss to the Rays in Fenway).

On May 6, they were statistically one of the very best offenses in baseball—top 5 in just about every advanced category, including a 117 wRC+ number. Since May 7, their wRC+ is 92. Perhaps it is too early in season to say the bottom has fallen out for the Red Sox. But, dang.

Though few and far between, there have been bright spots in the Red Sox’ gray skies since May 7, such as starter Brayan Bello, who has a 2.89 ERA in that span. His SIERA during the same span (3.90) suggests some negative regression, but I am not confident that the Yankees offense without Aaron Judge will be the side to force that regression. The Yankees offense has averaged only 3.16 runs per games since Judge went down.

New York will send right-hander Clarke Schmidt to the mound, another pitcher whose solid ERA (2.49 since May 15) might be betrayed by a higher SIERA (3.99) and xFIP (3.97). And again, it’s unlikely that the Red Sox will be the offense to force that regression. I give the Yankees a slight edge here, primarily because Boston’s real offensive weaknesses seem to appear against right-handing pitching. The splits show the picture—during their “since-May 6” slump, the Red Sox still managed very solid numbers (117 wRC+ and .787 OPS) against left-handers. But they posted a terrible numbers against right-handers—83 WRC+ and .701 OPS.

My own bet for this game, however, will be UNDER the total of 8.5 runs (now -105 on FanDuel )because I project something like a 4-3 score here. It’s difficult to envision a high-scoring affair tonight with two solid starters and two solid well-rested bullpens. And until these two offenses show me that they remember how to consistently create runs, it may be that way for a while with these clubs.

Best of the Rest

• Bet the MARINERS to win/money line (-108)

• Bet the game total UNDER 8.5 runs in Cubs/Giants (-104)