Thursday Bets Bets in MLB!

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (7:08 PM ET)

Do we remember that ridiculous HBO thing that we were all obsessed with in the 2010s? I think it was called Game of Thrones. Yes, well this Yankees/Blue Jays series is feeling a lot like that, what with its high drama, its goofy scenarios, and its, um, lengthiness. Will this thing ever end? Will it do so before Aaron Judge’s dragon is circling the skies over Toronto and incinerating its good citizens? Today, the Yankees and Blue Jays do actually play the final game of their series in Toronto, so set your TiVo. (Yes, the 2011 reference felt appropriate there). Yesterday, the Yankees were shut out in a ten inning pitchers duel, and they only managed 3 hits. But they scored 13 runs in the previous two games in this series, so it’s not as if they’ve forgotten how to manufacture runs. However, today they face Jose Berrios, who is far from an ace but whose season acceptable 3.78 SIERA is supported by the fact that he has given up two runs or fewer in five of his last 6 starts. (The one exception in that span was a 6 earned run disaster in Boston on May 1.) Nestor Cortes, he with the mustached-themed cleats, the 5.53 ERA, 5.17 xFIP, and 4.60 SIERA, will go to the mound for the Yanks. Cortes has given up 6 or more runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Jays’ offense in dangerous—it has been top-10 in wRC+ this season. Let’s take the Jays in this game, and as they tie the series 2-2, let’s all remember the empty, unresolved feeling we all had at the end of that other lengthy TV fantasy-drama. Winter is coming, indeed.

Bet the BLUE JAYS to win money line (-138).

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (2:10 PM ET)

This matchup pits Dylan Cease for the Sox against Logan Allen for the Guardians. Cease’s season numbers are not great—a 4.86 ERA, 4.27 SIERA, and 4.28 XERA through nine games. The good news for the Sox is that he seems to be drinking the same water that they all are, and his results have improved (if not his advanced numbers). In his last start. he pitched six shutout innings against the Astros. The Guards’ starter Logan Allen, called up from AAA a few weeks ago, has slightly better numbers—a 3.43 ERA and 3.96 SIERA through four starts, but his xERA (5.67) is a bit scary. With these things in mind, I am a bit surprised to see the total set at 7.5 runs. The Sox and the Guardians aren't known for their offensive firepower, but the first two games of the series have proven to be high-scoring affairs. I would not be surprised to see this one go there as well, especially considering the recent revival of a Sox offense that was left-for-dead in April. Since April 29, the Sox have ranked top 12 in MLB in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and batting average.

 Bet the game total OVER 7.5 runs (-110).

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles (12:36 PM ET)

The Angels finish their series in Baltimore today. These clubs have both been solid offensively, ranking top eleven in wRC+, wOBA, and K-BB%. Two out of their previous 3 games have ended with a score of ten or more. Today’s game is a battle of the Tylers—the Angels’ Tyler Anderson versus the O’s Tyler Wells. Tyler Anderson, through seven starts, has struggled, and he has a 5.26 ERA and 6.06 xFIP to show for it. His counterpart, Tyler Wells, has done well through eight starts, with an ERA of 2.68 to show for it. Some negative regression is in line for Wells, however, as his 4.42 xFIP suggests, and I would not be surprised to see it happen today against as the Angels will be looking to even this series win on the road. There’s just been too much offense in Baltimore this week not to make a play on the over here.

Bet the game total OVER 8.5 runs (-110).

 Best of the Rest

• Bet the Cardinals to win money line (+126).

• Bet the Rays -0.5 runs on the F5 run line (-120).