The Mets? The Marlin? The Drama Birds? Buy/Sell/Hold ratings for MLB (East edition)

Buy the Jays

Last week in this space, we noted that the Toronto Blue Jays are a team that desperately needs to flip a switch. The last two and a half weeks of May were not pretty for the Jays. Their clash with with the Yankees a few weeks ago, with all of its “chirping” and petty drama, seemed to put them into a funk. At one point (from May 14-27), they went 3-10, with series losses to the Yankees, Orioles, and Twins. Six of those 10 losses were at home, part of a disastrous seven-game home stand. Most baseball observers were quite ready to stick this Jays club into the nearest garage sale, and sell without hesitation.

But here’s the thing—this is one of the most potent offenses in the big leagues—top-10 in just about every major hitting category. The Jays have seven roster players with wRC+ numbers above 110 (only three AL teams have more than that). And from May 16 to June 1, despite the funk they were in, they ranked third in MLB in wRC+ as a team. As a point of comparison, their imagined nemesis, the Yankees (who moved ahead of them in the AL East standings after that ill-fated series in Toronto) ranked 14^th during that same period. The Orioles (another AL East squad who moved ahead of the Jays in May) ranked 12^th .

You might think that pitching is the problem for the Jays, but as a staff, they are top ten in just about every advanced category there too. Their biggest concern in the starting staff has been utter ruination of Alek Manoah, but they took measures to address that problem by sending him to Florida for (hopeful) rehabilitation. In the meantime, the Jays called up Bowden Francis, who has looked sharp for their Triple-A Buffalo affiliate. He’ll be tested against the Twins today. The rest of the Jays starting staff—Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, and Kikuchi—is very solid. No Cy Young candidates there, but without Manoah, this staff collectively ranks top five in ERA, SIERA, xFIP, WHIP, and K-BB%.

With no major injuries to speak of, the Jays were underperforming to say the least. Perhaps it is the steadying hand of veterans like Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifeld, but the Jays seem to have dispensed with their chirping (and their Yankees fixation), and are instead playing good baseball again. They’re 8-3 since May 26, with series wins over the Twins, Brewers, Mets, and Astros. That’s stellar stuff. The drama continues with this club, and the AL East is tough, no doubt. The Jays are still fourth in the standings with a 36-29 record (10.5 games behind the first place Rays). But there is just too much to love about this club to not (at least cautiously) buy into them at this point. And if this club grabs a playoff berth in October, watch out. This is a BUY for me.

Hold the Marlins

Unlike the Blue Jays, the Miami Marlins had a very good month of May, and that has continued into June. Their record over the last 31 days is 19-10, and they’ve moved solidly into second place in the NL East standings, just 3.5 games back of Atlanta. They have swept three out of their last 4 series. Their average run total over the last six games is 7.3. And there’s no doubt that Luis Arraez is a true-blue superstar:

The Marlin’s starting pitching staff collectively ranks top eight in MLB in ERA, SIERA (3.99), xFIP (3.90), and K-BB% (16.8%). If the Marlins have a weakness is pitching, it is that they tend to allow hard contact (36.3% Hard Hit %, which ranks 27^th in the league). This tendency goes far to explain why they tend to allow more hits than they should (305% BABIP allowed, which ranks 25^th in the league), and it might tell us why their staff has mediocre WHIP (1.28) despite a low walk %. But honestly (as many who know more about pitching than I do will tell you) BABIP reverts to the mean more often than not over the course of a season.In short, there is good reason to be optimistic about the Marlins, and that is great to see, considering their incompetence over the last few years.

That said, it need to be noted that the Marlin offense (behind Arraez) is still a bit sketchy to think seriously about their pennant run. Their team wRC+ (101) is 15^th in the league, 19 points behind Atlanta (120), and their team OPS (.730) is ranked 18^th in the league. If you take Arraez out of that mix, then you’re looking at a very mediocre offense. To add to that, their recent success has come against some very suspect clubs—the A’s, the Royals, the Rockies, and the Padres. The good vibes will likely continue this weekend against the White Sox, but then things get tricky as they face the Blue Jays, the Pirates, and the Braves in the next few weeks. HOLD this team for now, tempering expectations for a playoff run.

Sell the Mets

And then there’s the Mets, and for the Mets that ol’ up-and-down roller coaster continues to run, as it always seems to do. I’d like to be able to say “Buy this stock while it is cheap,” but um no. Do not. It is not merely the seven game losing streak that they have going into their Saturday contest against the Pirates. Nor is it the 5-11 record they have over the last two weeks. It is the fact that their offense is anemic right now with a team batting average of .246, ranked 20th in baseball, and a team OPS of .713, also ranked 20th in baseball. Francisco Lindor is at .222 with a sub-.300 OBP. Jeff McNeil's average is down nearly 50 points from last season's league-leading number. Alvarez, Marte and Canha are also posting weak numbers. True, the Mets still have a respectable 103 wRC+, but over the last eleven days they’ve managed only an 81 wRC+. When you are posting those numbers in the middle of June, there’s something rotten in Denmark. Add the fact that they lose Pete Alonso’s homerun power for the next 3-4 weeks, and it just hard to see them really challenging for a playoff berth this year. We hate to say it (for Mets fans’ sake) but this team gets a SELL rating.