Tuesday’s Best Bets in MLB!

BEST BETS

 New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) 

Scherzer vs. Weaver here. Max Scherzer is, right now, a shadow of his former self, and it has not been an easy thing to watch. I am not talking about the suspension for excessive sticky stuff, which might have been rather fortuitous for him because his 39-year-old self needed the rest. The problem has been his shoulder. His K-BB% is currently at 10.4%, ranked 116^th in MLB among pitchers with ten or more innings pitched. His STATCAST-influenced xERA is 5.26, good for only 49^th in the league among starters. This is not the Scherzer we have known, and today he faces the Reds in their hitter-friendly home—Great American Park. Luke Weaver, likewise, may have some trouble in this park, even though it is his home field. Weaver (7.88 ERA) is a pitcher who tends to get many Ks but also tends to allow more than a few dingers. So far this season he has 5 home runs allowed in 16.2 IP including three in his only home start. I will take the over total in the first five innings here.

Bet the OVER 5 in first five (F5) innings.

Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET)

The Marlins tend to struggle on the road—they have lost 2 of their last 9 games away from home—and today they go up against Brandon Pfaadt, who fared poorly in his MLB debut last week (7 earned runs) but who has been one of Zona’s top pitching prospects. Arizona is 20-15, sitting just a half-game behind the Dodgers in the NL West, and more importantly for today’s game, they are 11-7 at home with plus-13 run differential. The Diamondbacks will face southpaw Jesus Luzardo, whose 4.07 ERA is not bad, but Arizona has won 6/7 games against left-handed starters. The money line price for taking the DBacks to win outright is -115, a rare value for a much better squad—so I am going to go with the hot bats here at home. Let’s see if Pfaadt can live up to expectations.

Bet the DBACKS to win money line (-115)

Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 PM ET)

In this game (as in the Reds/Mets game discussed previously), we have a matchup between two veteran pitchers who seem to be a bit off this season. Alek Manoah, with an xERA of 6.75 and a K-BB% of 5.8, has seen a drop in velocity, increased walks, and reduced strikeouts this season. Aaron Nola, with a K-BB% of 14.0, has also seen a decrease in strikeouts to walks, though he still has solid outings and a respectable xERA of 3.69. He is “supported” (or not supported) by a Phillies pen with the fifth-worst ERA in the league. For these reasons, I will back the over 8.5 in this game. 

Bet the game total OVER 8.5. 

Best of the Rest

· Bet the CUBS to win money line (-145)

· Bet the GIANTS (-1.5) run line (-115)

· Bet the Rangers/Mariners game total UNDER 8 (-120)