Two Best Bets for a Friday afternoon contest

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (4:10 PM ET)

The Kansas City Royals (6-20) face the Minnesota Twins (15-11) in Minneapolis. Minnesota leads the season series 4-0 and looks to continue their dominance with their ace, Pablo Lopez, on the mound. On the other side, KC’s Jordan Lyles has struggled this season, giving up seven homers in his last four starts. His ERA of 4.88 looks somewhat safe, but his 5.66 xERA and a 5.13 xFIP are scary. In contrast, Lopez has conceded two or fewer runs in four of his five outings and boasts a 2.79 xERA (to enhance his current 3.00 ERA).

The Twins do certainly seem to be in good form, having won four out of their last five games, including a series win against the Yankees. In contrast, the Royals are having a disastrous season, with only one series victory against the Giants and eight losses in their last ten games. The Twins are, or course, the clear favorites to win this game. The question is—shall we take the -1.5 run line at -120? I tend to shy away from run lines but this game strikes me differently. The Royals are in a major slump—averaging 3.28 runs per game (ranked 28th in MLB) with a pitching staff that has posted a 5.29 team ERA (also ranked 28th). Alternatively, the Twins have been scoring an average of 4.36 runs per game while maintaining a solid pitching record with a 3.52 team ERA. I like two bets in this game.

Bet the TWINS -1.5 run line (-120)

Bet the game total UNDER at 7.5 (-110)