Two Best Bets for Thursday afternoon!

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (1:05 PM ET)

The Cubs have demonstrated that they can handle left-handers this season, ranking third in wOBA (131) and wRC+ (.369) against lefties. With those types of numbers, we can bet on the Cubs scoring runs against Patrick Corbin, whose 7.29 xFIP and 7.22 SIERA are scary. Moreover, Corbin enters this matchup with an xERA of 6.92, which suggests that teams are finding ways to get hard contact against him. The Cubs will likely carry on that trend this afternoon. On most books you can find a first 5 innings run line spread of Cubs -0.5, which is where I see most of the value here.

Bet the Cubs -0.5 run line in the first 5 innings (-120)

New York Mets at Detroit Tigers (1:10 PM ET)

The Mets lost both games of the doubleheader on Wednesday in Detroit, including an 8-1 loss to Max Scherzer, on the mound against his former team. The Mets look to return the favor today with an ace whose former team was Detroit—Justin Verlander. This is his season opener, so all eyes will be upon him, but a pitcher like Verlander (1.75 ERA in 2022) is difficult to bet against. Add to that, the Tigers will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez whose 2.21 ERA is very good so far but is likely due for some regression in the direction of his career ERA of 4.08. Rodriguez’s xFIP is currently 3.91, (which is more in line with his career 4.07 xFIP). Rodriguez has been getting a lot of help from his defense, and holds a .219 BABIP because of it. That is not something we can depend on. The Mets will likely be able to handle him and put some runs up against a weak Tigers’ pen, and so I will take the run line for this one.

Bet the METS -1.5 run line (-105)