Wednesday Best Bets!

Total falling fast in Cleveland.

May 24, 2023

Michael Kopech

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians (1:10 PM ET)

There are several cases in point to support playing the under in this game, with the biggest, perhaps, being Cleveland’s utter incompetence offensively. They have ranked at or near the bottom in just about every advanced MLB batting number this year. Their wRC+ of 77 (sixty points below league-leading Texas), their wOBA of .283, their OPS of .643, and their BABIP of .267 are all dead last in the league. As a team, they tend to strike out infrequently—19.1% of the time—and their walk rate 8.8% is not bad, but dang, if you only get weak contact, and if you cannot get balls in play, how does a fairly good BB/K rate help? I’d like (for the Guards’ sake) to be able to write that Cleveland’s numbers have improved in May, but that has not been the case.

The Chicago White Sox are, on the other hand, are a team that has seen some improvement in hitting numbers in the last few weeks—their May numbers (.305 wOBA; 93 wRC+) show a slight uptick in relation to their April numbers (.294 wOBA; 84 wRC+), and their just-above-.500 record in the month of May reflects that. They are no longer bottom-of-the-barrel, at least. But let’s not kid ourselves, the Sox are not exactly a powerhouse offense, and they fare much worse against right-handed pitching than they do against lefties. Today, both offenses face right-handers. Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill (4.06 ERA; 5.33 SIERA) is not going to make anyone’s short list for Cy Young candidates, but he is backed by a solid Cleveland bullpen, one of the few bright spots on this team. Chicago’s Michael Kopech is (4.90 SIERA) is heating up, coming off a one-hitter last week against KC (with 10 Ks in that game). All things considered, this should be a low-scoring affair—not exactly must-see baseball unless one is a fan of dead birds—but from sharp bettors, it has received lots of attention due the fact that the total opened at 9 runs. It is falling fast, so act quickly…

Bet the game total UNDER 8 runs (-120).

 Best of the Rest

  • Bet the PIRATES money line/to win (+106).

  • Bet the DIAMONDBACKS money line/to win the first five (F5) innings (-130).

  • Bet the Rays total OVER 4.5 runs (-115).